2024 election results: Surprises and controversies in France, India, Venezuela and more
Written by Leila Hawkins
Photo: European Union 2024, European Parliament / CC BY 2.0
It has already been an extraordinary year for global politics. By the end of 2024 almost half the world’s population will have had elections in their country of residence, including a number of very significant polls that could alter world politics for decades to come. So far we have witnessed shock snap elections and dramatic twists in France, India, Iran, Venezuela and many more.
We break down the key moments, surprising victories and contentious issues that have defined this year’s elections so far.
European Union
June’s EU elections saw voters in 27 countries pick their representatives in the European Parliament. While the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) won a majority with 188 seats and 26% of the vote, the key takeaway was the success of the far right, with Patriots for Europe (which includes includes MEPs from the French National Rally, Hungary’s Fidesz, Spain’s Vox and Italy’s League), becoming the third biggest group. The recently formed Europe of Sovereign Nations, encompassing the controversial Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Poland’s Confederation among others, also made inroads with 25 seats.
Ursula von der Leyen won a second term as president of the European Commission, but for the first time in its history the number of women MEPs elected has decreased, with 61.3% men vs 38.6% women. Specific committees now have a large gender disparity, such as the Foreign Affairs Committee with only 14 of its 79 members being women, and the Economy Committee with 16 women out of 60 members.
European Parliament’s gender balance by country (in %)
France
It has been an intense year for French politics. After the European Union’s parliamentary elections saw the far-right National Rally surge ahead of president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance party, Macron called a snap election to the surprise of many (a move not dissimilar to that of Spain’s socialist president Pedro Sanchez in 2023, following the huge wins Vox gained in the regional vote).
Another surprise twist was that more women than men voted for the National Rally, perhaps in part due to the party’s conflation of women’s rights with its rhetoric on migrants. But while forecasts indicated that it could secure a majority on July 7th, leftwing parties joined forces to form the Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front), an alliance of Socialists (PS), Greens (EELV), Communists (PCF) and the leftwing Insoumises. The National Rally ended up in third place behind the New Popular Front and the Ensemble, a liberal coalition formed by Renaissance and a number of other smaller, centrist parties. But while they succeeded in defeating the National Rally neither gained a majority, and in-fighting between the various parties means it could take weeks before a new government is established.
India
Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) were widely expected to win a historic third term in India’s elections, and while successful he did not secure the 272 seats needed for a majority. The party’s divisive Hindu nationalist stance and economic messaging failed to resonate with voters, particularly in cosmopolitan areas and with India’s religious minorities. Not for the first time, Modi attempted to court women voters by promising to improve safety and reminding voters of previous initiatives such as providing cooking gas cylinders to households.
Modi will govern with a coalition formed with the rightwing National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The outcome is largely seen as a comeback for the opposition Indian National Congress and a quiet win for democracy, as many feared that a resounding third win for Modi risked tilting the country towards a one-party dictatorship.
Indonesia
In February Indonesia held its most significant elections to date — a record-breaking 82.39% of the population turned out to vote, well above the global average of 65.6%. Additionally, the number of registered women voters was slightly higher than men.
The fifth election since the end of a 32-year autocratic regime that ended in 1998 saw former defence minister and special forces commander Prabowo Subianto win with 59% of the vote.
Subianto has promised to introduce ambitious welfare programmes such as free lunches for all Indonesian students, however he has been accused of human rights abuses in the past, and concerns have been voiced over his intentions regarding Indonesia’s young democracy.
Iran
Iran’s elections were called early after the death of president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. These were the first elections to take place since Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody, which led to nationwide protests and the global ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ movement. Following her death, Iran’s parliament responded by strengthening hijab laws and punishing protesters with violence.
No candidate won a majority in the first round, but Masoud Pezeshkian, the only reformist candidate running, won in the second round with 53.7% of the vote. Supporters took to the streets to celebrate the result, following years of unrest due to the Islamic Republic’s hardline regime. Pezeshkian has been critical of the country’s ‘morality police’ and has called for negotiations with Western countries in a bid to end Iran’s isolation from the rest of the world, but he will have a hard time getting meaningful reforms past the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader.
Mexico
In June Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum as its first ever female president. Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City Mayor and energy scientist, succeeds her mentor Manuel Andrés López Obrador.
Sheinbaum is also the country’s first Jewish president — her maternal grandparents emigrated to Mexico from Bulgaria fleeing the Nazis. Both of her parents were scientists and Sheinbaum studied physics before going on to work at a research lab in California studying Mexican energy consumption patterns and becoming an expert on climate change.
Her win represents a groundbreaking chapter in Mexico’s history, which has been marred by its high number of femicides in recent years.
Pakistan
Pakistan held elections in February, in a tumultuous contest marred by corruption. Former prime minister Imran Khan had attempted to run from prison after being jailed for leaking state secrets among other charges, but was ultimately disqualified, with Pakistan’s Supreme Court stripping his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party of its election symbol and forcing all the party’s candidates to run as independents.
Despite this, candidates backed by his party won the majority of seats, though not enough to form a majority. The parties that came second and third, the Pakistan Muslim League party (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) formed a coalition government with Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister before the 2024 election, elected to the office again.
The Free and Fair Election Network noted that its agents were not allowed to observe the result tabulations in at least half the constituencies; raising questions over the legitimacy of the results.
Voter turnout was overall higher than in previous elections, however there continues to be a disparity between women and men voters, with an estimated 43% of women voting compared to 52% of men. In this year’s Global Gender Gap Report compiled by the World Economic Forum (WEF), Pakistan ranked second to last out of 146 countries, with women’s lack of political empowerment a contributing factor.
Russia
In 2020, Russian president Vladimir Putin amended an article of the constitution that prevented anyone from holding the position of the presidency for more than two terms in a row. As a result he was able to run for a third consecutive time in March this year, and for a fifth term overall. The outcome was a resounding win for Putin, who received an unprecedented 87.3% percent of the vote, with a voter turnout of 77.4%.
Following the sudden death in custody of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in a country well known for repression of public dissent, his re-election seemed like a foregone conclusion. The high numbers, however, are the result of a carefully orchestrated campaign that aimed to achieve a minimum of 80% of the vote through “corporate mobilisation”, explained in detail in this guide by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
With Putin in the Kremlin for another six years — at least — an end to the war in Ukraine seems unlikely in the near future, while the right to protest, and the lives of human rights defenders, women’s rights activists and the LGBTQ community continue to be at risk.
UK
At the start of the year UK voters knew there would be a general election in 2024, but Rishi Sunak’s sudden announcement in May to hold an election some six weeks later came as a surprise to many. It was widely assumed the Conservatives would lose — ending their 14-year spell in government, but the scale of the party’s loss wasn’t certain.
In the end the Labour party won with a landslide, winning a total of 411 seats (up 209 on their total from the 2019 election), with the Conservatives bleeding 244 seats to Keir Starmer’s party, a clear showing of the national discontent over huge rises in poverty and homelessness, caused in no small part by cuts to public services and the economic fallout of Brexit.
The new cabinet has the highest number of female ministers in Britain’s political history, with Rachel Reeves becoming the first female chancellor. It is also the cabinet with the most state-educated members since 1945 — a huge shift from the disproportionate number of privately-educated politicians that have made up cabinets of recent years, meaning that the current government most closely represents the educational experiences of the UK population.
US
Voting day in the US is still four months away but the run-up to the election has certainly been keeping political commentators on their toes. On July 13, during a Republican rally in Pennsylvania, a lone shooter attempted to kill Donald Trump while he was speaking. His immediate reaction, to raise his fist to the air shouting ‘Fight!’, with a streak of blood smeared across his ear made front pages around the world, but this was eclipsed a week later when Joe Biden announced he was stepping down as a candidate following weeks of debates over his health and calls for him to stand aside.
His vice president Kamala Harris succeeds him as leader of the Democrat party, and recent polls suggest she has already significantly reduced the Republican’s lead among voters. Her campaign raised $200 million in its first week, with campaigners saying 66% is from first-time donors in a show of “unprecedented grassroots support”. Could the US be about to get its first ever female president?
Venezuela
Venezuela’s elections have been mired in controversy from the beginning. The country faced a crucial vote after years of constitutional crises, economic decline and reports of human rights abuses, with president Nicolas Maduro running for a third time. US-backed Maria Corina Machado of the centrist alliance Unitary Platform was set to be the main opposition, however she was disqualified from running by the Supreme Court who gave the reason as “being involved… in the corruption plot orchestrated by the usurper Juan Guaido.”
On July 29 Venezuela’s electoral authority declared Maduro the winner with 51% of the vote against the independent candidate Edmundo Gonzalez’s 44%. The result is being disputed by the opposition and the international community, with the former claiming that in fact Gonzalez is the winner with 70% of the vote. But while US senators and neighbouring Latin countries have raised concerns over the result, electoral observers within Venezuela have declared the outcome to be legitimate.
In the aftermath, Machado called for “popular assemblies” and for Venezuela’s armed forces to stand “on the right side of history”. In one respect, the opposition has succeeded, with thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets in protests that have at times turned violent, so far leading to the deaths of six people.
Also this year…
- Belarus held parliamentary and local council elections in February with no opposition candidates — all contenders come from four registered political parties, each of which is pro-government. Of these Belaya Rus was the overall winner, a party founded in 2007 to support president Alexander Lukashenko.
- Haiti elections were also scheduled to take place in February, but since the assassination of president Jovenel Moïse in 2021, Haiti has been in a state of emergency and there are no longer any elected officials.
- Iceland has voted in its second female president in Halla Tómasdóttir, an entrepreneur.
- Mali was due to hold elections in February, but these have been postponed with no date currently set. The military junta is currently in power, despite promising to hand over power to elected civilians at the end of 2022.
- South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) continues to be the reigning party with 40% of the vote, but lost its majority for the first time since the country transitioned to a democracy.
- South Korea’s elections saw liberal opposition parties achieve a landslide victory against president Yoon Suk-yeol and his conservative party. This could represent a sea change in a country that has been dogged by a huge anti-feminist backlash in recent years.
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